Bracket Optimization

Report Parameters

• Output File: Michigan.csv
• Type of Start Point: Elite8
• Elite 8 Team: Michigan
• Number of truth Brackets:
• Number of Adversaries: 20
• Poisson Mutation rate: 3
• Number of children per generation: 50
• Number of generations: 50
• Bracket permutation method: 2

Create the Starting Bracket

if (params$start_point == "Xmax")
{
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, P)
} else if (params$start_point == "Ymax")
{
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, Th)
} else if (params$start_point == "Elite8")
{
  team_ind <- which(trans$TEAM == params$elite8_team)
  assertthat::assert_that(length(team_ind) > 0,
                          msg = paste0("Team ", params$elite8_team, " not found"))
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, P, team_ind)
} else
{
  stop(paste0("Algorithm Start Point ", params$start_point, " not recognized"))
}
checkBracket(structureList, Z)
Zscore <- scoreTruthSampleList(Z, X)

Genetic Algorithm

newZ <- geneticBracketSearch(Z, pRate, nchildren, ngenerations, TRUE, gen_method)

## 2021-05-16 02:23:15 
##  Generation 1 Poisson Rate 3 P(win) 0.0547 
##  Generation 2 Poisson Rate 2.949 P(win) 0.1417 
##  Generation 3 Poisson Rate 2.849 P(win) 0.1417 
##  Generation 4 Poisson Rate 2.705 P(win) 0.1425 
##  Generation 5 Poisson Rate 2.525 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 6 Poisson Rate 2.319 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 7 Poisson Rate 2.096 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 8 Poisson Rate 1.868 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 9 Poisson Rate 1.645 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 10 Poisson Rate 1.434 P(win) 0.1567 
##  Generation 11 Poisson Rate 1.244 P(win) 0.1593 
##  Generation 12 Poisson Rate 1.077 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 13 Poisson Rate 0.935 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 14 Poisson Rate 0.82 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 15 Poisson Rate 0.729 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 16 Poisson Rate 0.659 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 17 Poisson Rate 0.607 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 18 Poisson Rate 0.57 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 19 Poisson Rate 0.544 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 20 Poisson Rate 0.527 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 21 Poisson Rate 0.516 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 22 Poisson Rate 0.568 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 23 Poisson Rate 0.624 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 24 Poisson Rate 0.687 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 25 Poisson Rate 0.755 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 26 Poisson Rate 0.831 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 27 Poisson Rate 0.914 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 28 Poisson Rate 1.006 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 29 Poisson Rate 1.106 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 30 Poisson Rate 1.217 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 31 Poisson Rate 1.338 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 32 Poisson Rate 1.472 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 33 Poisson Rate 1.619 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 34 Poisson Rate 1.781 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 35 Poisson Rate 1.959 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 36 Poisson Rate 2.155 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 37 Poisson Rate 2.371 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 38 Poisson Rate 2.608 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 39 Poisson Rate 2.869 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 40 Poisson Rate 3.156 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 41 Poisson Rate 3.471 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 42 Poisson Rate 3.818 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 43 Poisson Rate 4.2 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 44 Poisson Rate 4.62 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 45 Poisson Rate 5.082 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 46 Poisson Rate 5.591 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 47 Poisson Rate 6.15 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 48 Poisson Rate 6.765 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 49 Poisson Rate 7.441 P(win) 0.1641 
##  Generation 50 Poisson Rate 8.185 P(win) 0.1641 
## 2021-05-16 03:22:37

dimnames(newZ$current_best) <- list(trans$TEAM, paste0("Round", 1:6))
write.csv(newZ$current_best, file = params$output_file)

• Score went from 860.872 to 1007.358
• P(win) went from 0.0547 to 0.1641

Score Density

Bracket Fingerprint