Bracket Optimization

Report Parameters

• Output File: Ymax.csv
• Type of Start Point: Ymax
• Elite 8 Team: NA
• Number of truth Brackets:
• Number of Adversaries: 20
• Poisson Mutation rate: 3
• Number of children per generation: 50
• Number of generations: 50
• Bracket permutation method: 2

Create the Starting Bracket

if (params$start_point == "Xmax")
{
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, P)
} else if (params$start_point == "Ymax")
{
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, Th)
} else if (params$start_point == "Elite8")
{
  team_ind <- which(trans$TEAM == params$elite8_team)
  assertthat::assert_that(length(team_ind) > 0,
                          msg = paste0("Team ", params$elite8_team, " not found"))
  Z <- drawMaxLikelihoodBracket(structureList, P, team_ind)
} else
{
  stop(paste0("Algorithm Start Point ", params$start_point, " not recognized"))
}
checkBracket(structureList, Z)
Zscore <- scoreTruthSampleList(Z, X)

Genetic Algorithm

newZ <- geneticBracketSearch(Z, pRate, nchildren, ngenerations, TRUE, gen_method)

## 2021-05-16 02:21:26 
##  Generation 1 Poisson Rate 3 P(win) 0.1409 
##  Generation 2 Poisson Rate 2.949 P(win) 0.1409 
##  Generation 3 Poisson Rate 2.849 P(win) 0.1409 
##  Generation 4 Poisson Rate 2.705 P(win) 0.1409 
##  Generation 5 Poisson Rate 2.525 P(win) 0.1488 
##  Generation 6 Poisson Rate 2.319 P(win) 0.1509 
##  Generation 7 Poisson Rate 2.096 P(win) 0.1551 
##  Generation 8 Poisson Rate 1.868 P(win) 0.1551 
##  Generation 9 Poisson Rate 1.645 P(win) 0.1551 
##  Generation 10 Poisson Rate 1.434 P(win) 0.1551 
##  Generation 11 Poisson Rate 1.244 P(win) 0.1551 
##  Generation 12 Poisson Rate 1.077 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 13 Poisson Rate 0.935 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 14 Poisson Rate 0.82 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 15 Poisson Rate 0.729 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 16 Poisson Rate 0.659 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 17 Poisson Rate 0.607 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 18 Poisson Rate 0.57 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 19 Poisson Rate 0.544 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 20 Poisson Rate 0.527 P(win) 0.1571 
##  Generation 21 Poisson Rate 0.516 P(win) 0.1577 
##  Generation 22 Poisson Rate 0.509 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 23 Poisson Rate 0.505 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 24 Poisson Rate 0.503 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 25 Poisson Rate 0.501 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 26 Poisson Rate 0.501 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 27 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1628 
##  Generation 28 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 29 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 30 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 31 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 32 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 33 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 34 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 35 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 36 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 37 Poisson Rate 0.5 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 38 Poisson Rate 0.55 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 39 Poisson Rate 0.605 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 40 Poisson Rate 0.666 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 41 Poisson Rate 0.732 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 42 Poisson Rate 0.805 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 43 Poisson Rate 0.886 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 44 Poisson Rate 0.974 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 45 Poisson Rate 1.072 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 46 Poisson Rate 1.179 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 47 Poisson Rate 1.297 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 48 Poisson Rate 1.427 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 49 Poisson Rate 1.569 P(win) 0.1654 
##  Generation 50 Poisson Rate 1.726 P(win) 0.1654 
## 2021-05-16 03:02:03

dimnames(newZ$current_best) <- list(trans$TEAM, paste0("Round", 1:6))
write.csv(newZ$current_best, file = params$output_file)

• Score went from 1006.37 to 1008.244
• P(win) went from 0.1409 to 0.1654

Score Density

Bracket Fingerprint